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July 2015 Market Update
For the week of July 27, 2015 – Vol. 13, Issue 30>> Market Update QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "If you want to be thought a liar, always tell the truth." --Logan Pearsall Smith, American writerINFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE... Some folks think it's a lie that the housing market is making progress, but the truth is, the evidence of recovery keeps mounting. Last week we got Existing Home Sales up 3.2% in June to a 5.49 million annual rate, 9.6% ahead of a year ago. And this bump wasn't just caused by some sensational performances in a few areas of the country. Sales went up in all major regions, and although the gain was mostly due to single family homes, condo/coop sales also rose. In fact, June saw the fastest sales pace for existing homes in more than 8 years, in spite of the tight supply and increasing prices, with the median price up 6.5% from a year ago.But sometimes the truth is elusive. Friday's report that New Home Sales were down 6.8% in June might make it look like the housing recovery is in trouble. But the truth is, monthly data can be volatile. So what counts is the trend--new home sales are up 18.1% in the last year, during which time, they've averaged their fastest sales pace since 2008, despite the June dip. Housing starts are also trending higher and inventories rose by 7,000 units. In other news, the FHFA index of prices for homes bought with conforming mortgages is 5.7% higher than a year ago. And the government announced that the new TRID mortgage disclosure rule now will not go into effect until October 3.BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Avoid longing for the good old days, or dwelling on bad experiences. Learn from the past and move on. Just live for the present and plan for the future.>> Review of Last WeekMORE OF THE SAME... All this year, the theme for stocks has been volatility, so last week's market performance fit right in: the three major market indexes fell solidly, following their nice upsurge the week before. Investors were bothered by a trio of concerns. U.S. economic data remains mixed, the latest corporate earnings reports for Q2 included some disappointments, and the Federal Reserve has clearly stated that it hopes to be able to begin raising the Fed Funds Rate before year end. Wall Street didn't like the June dip in New Home Sales, forgetting that the better-than-expected Existing Home Sales number was far more important, accounting for about 90% of all home sales.It also would have been nice if Wall Streeters had taken better note of the week's jobless claims report. Initial Unemployment Claims dropped by another 26,000, putting them at 255,000. That's their lowest level since November 1973, and the 20th week in a row they've been below 300,000. Continuing Unemployment Claims dropped to their second lowest level since November 2000. This ongoing improvement in the labor market of course bodes well for housing. But who knows? A Federal Reserve staff report was inadvertently released that included staff (not policymakers) projections of the Funds Rate--0.35% at the end of this year and 1.26% at the end of 2016. The week ended with the Dow down 2.9%, to 17569; the S&P 500 down 2.2%, to 2080; and the Nasdaq down 2.3%, to 5089.As investor money left stocks and went into bonds, prices surged, with a modest rally on Friday after the New Home Sales report. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP .73, to $106.02. For the week ending July 23, national average fixed mortgage rates reversed course yet again, this time happily heading downward in Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up to the minute information. DID YOU KNOW?... An online real estate site reports the average college-educated American has about $26,000 in student loan debt, representing an average payment of around $280 per month over 10 years. >> This Week’s Forecast PENDING HOME SALES OK, GDP AND EMPLOYMENT COSTS GROW, THE FED MEETS... A fairly busy week of economic reporting gives us Pending Home Sales, predicted up again in July, and the GDP-Advanced reading for Q2, expected to show the economy growing once more--nothing spectacular, of course, at well under 3%. The Employment Cost Index for the same Q is also forecast up, which could foretell future inflation. The FOMC Rate Decision comes Wednesday, and although no one sees a rate hike now, the Fed's policy statement will be scrutinized for signs of one as early as September.>> The Week’s Economic Indicator CalendarWeaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of July 27 – July 31 DateTime (ET)ReleaseForConsensusPriorImpactMJul 2708:30Durable Goods OrdersJun3.0%-2.2%ModerateTuJul 2810:00Consumer ConfidenceJul100.0101.4ModerateWJul 2910:00Pending Home SalesJun1.0%0.9%ModerateWJul 2910:30Crude Inventories7/25NA2.468MModerateWJul 2914:00FOMC Rate Decision7/290%-0.25%0%-0.25%HIGHThJul 3008:30Initial Unemployment Claims7/25271K255KModerateThJul 30 08:30Continuing Unemployment Claims7/182.200M2.207MModerateThJul 3008:30GDP-AdvancedQ22.6%-0.2%ModerateThJul 3008:30GDP Chain Deflator-AdvancedQ21.5%0.0%ModerateFJul 3108:30Employment Cost IndexQ20.6%0.7%HIGHFJul 310945Chicago PMIJul50.549.4HIGHFJul 3110:00U. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment-FinalJul94.093.3Moderate >> Federal Reserve Watch Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... Those who monitor the mutterings of economists have noticed that a few more are saying the rate may begin heading north in September. But this is still a minority opinion. Note: In the lower chart, a 17% probability of change is an 83% certainty the rate will stay the same.Current Fed Funds Rate: 0%–0.25%After FOMC meeting on:Consensus Jul 290%-0.25%Sep 170%-0.25%Oct 280%-0.25%Probability of change from current policy:After FOMC meeting on:Consensus Jul 29 0%Sep 17 19%Oct 28 37%This e-mail is an advertisement for Joel Funston. The material provided is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment and/or mortgage advice, or a commitment to lend. Although the material is deemed to be accurate and reliable, there is no guarantee of its accuracy. The material contained in this message is the property of Supreme Lending and cannot be reproduced for any use without prior written consent. This message is intended for business professionals only and is not intended for distribution to consumers or other third parties. The material does not represent the opinion of Supreme Lending. EVERETT FINANCIAL, INC. D/B/A SUPREME LENDING (NMLS ID #2129) at 14801 Quorum Dr., #300, Dallas, TX 75254. 877-350-5225. Copyright © 2015. All rights reserved. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement. Not all customers will qualify. Information, rates, and programs are subject to change without prior notice. All products are subject to credit and property approval. Not all products are available in all states. Other restrictions and limitations may apply. Supreme Lending is not affiliated with any government agency. For Supreme Lending’s Licensing Statements, visit http://corporate.supremelending.com/Licensing.aspx. For all NMLS licenses held by Supreme, visit http://www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org/EntityDetails.aspx/COMPANY/2129/ This e-mail was sent to [email protected] may unsubscribe from future advertisement e-mails from Joel Funston.Click here to unsubscribe MCID16308
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