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Market Update June 27 2016
>> Market Update
QUOTE OF THE WEEK... "I was a peripheral visionary. I could see the future, but only way off to the side." --Steven Wright, American comedian
INFO THAT HITS US WHERE WE LIVE ... With economic data, we actually look backwards to form a vision of what lies ahead. In May, Existing Home Sales grew 1.8% to a solid 5.53 million unit annual rate, their highest sales pace in more than nine years. Many see demand building in the future, based on that strength last month. Homes typically were on the market only 32 days, the shortest duration since the National Association of Realtors started tracking that data back in 2011. Even better, 49% of existing homes sold in less than a month. This level of demand helped send the median price 4.7% higher than a year ago, the 51st month in a row of annual price gains.Price gains should help boost existing home supply, as sellers who were on the fence put their homes on the market to take advantage of higher prices, and then trade up. New home sales took a rest last month following their April surge, off 6.0%, logging a 551,000 unit annual rate. But that's a very decent 8.7% ahead of where they were a year ago. This level was also the second strongest read since February 2008 -- so to say the trend is positive is an understatement. The median new home sales price fell for the month, but is still 1.0% higher than a year ago. The sales drop also reflected a good development -- the mix of homes sold tilted toward the lower end of the market.
BUSINESS TIP OF THE WEEK... Always see the glass as half full. Be a fanatic optimist. Attitude consistently wins out in the end.
>> Review of Last Week CONTINENTAL DIVIDE... Thursday, the British people voted to leave the European Union and go their own way without having to listen to 40,000 unelected Brussels bureaucrats. This divides the island nation from its continental counterparts. It's the type of disruptive move that's celebrated in technology but spurned on Wall Street because investors do not like changes that come with uncertainties. So after stocks frolicked higher for four days, the market sank on Friday to finish down, not just for the week, but for the year. Whether the 'Brexit' will have any long-term negative effect on U.K. or global economies remains to be seen and many clear-headed observers believe it will not.But experts say it may take a few years for what was just voted to be fully realized, and that's where uncertainties come in. 'Uncertainties' was the word Fed Chair Janet Yellen used incessantly in her post-meeting presser the week before, where she alluded to the Brexit vote and hinted she's in no hurry to raise rates. Today, Fed watchers don't see a rate hike through next February. This makes Brexit good news for mortgage rates, which is great news for the housing market. Other news wasn't so good. May Durable Goods Orders fell 2.2%, showing manufacturing's continued struggles, no surprise there. June Michigan Consumer Sentiment slipped to 93.5 from May's 94.7.The week ended with the Dow down 1.6%, to 17401; the S&P 500 down 1.6%, to 2037; and the Nasdaq down 1.9%, to 4708. After investors heard the Brexit vote overnight, Friday morning saw them high-tailing it to the safe haven of bonds. Treasuries soared and mortgage bonds did OK too. The 30YR FNMA 4.0% bond we watch finished the week UP .08, at $107.11. For the week ending June 23, Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported national average 30-year fixed mortgage rates largely unchanged, near three-year lows. Remember, mortgage rates can be extremely volatile, so check with your mortgage professional for up-to-the-minute information.DID YOU KNOW?... The U.S. Census reports that in 2015, 53% of new single-family homes sold had four-plus bedrooms and 41% had three or more bathrooms. This is an over 30-year high, believed to be fueled by the rise in multigenerational housing.
>> This Week’s Forecast PENDING HOME SALES DIP, CONSUMERS SPEND, INFLATION, MANUFACTURING HOLD... For May, analysts are predicting Pending Home Sales will recede after their April surge. Personal Spending should be up, though not as much as in April. But it's good to see consumers opening their wallets and Core PCE inflation still mild. Not so good to see manufacturing in a holding pattern, with the Midwestern Chicago PMI and the national ISM Index hovering near the no-growth 50 level.
>> The Week’s Economic Indicator Calendar Weaker than expected economic data tends to send bond prices up and interest rates down, while positive data points to lower bond prices and rising loan rates. Economic Calendar for the Week of Jun 27 – Jul 1 DateTime (ET) ReleaseForConsensusPriorImpactTuJun 2808:30GDP - 3rd EstimateQ11.0%0.8%ModerateTuJun 2810:00Consumer ConfidenceJun93.192.6ModerateWJun 2908:30Personal IncomeMay0.3%0.4%ModerateWJun 2908:30Personal SpendingMay0.3%1.0%HIGHWJun 2908:30Core PCE Price IndexMay0.2%0,2%HIGHWJun 2910:00Pending Home SalesMay-1.4%5.1%ModerateWJun 2910:30Crude Inventories6/25NA-0.917MModerateThJun 3008:30Initial Unemployment Claims6/25265K259KModerateThJun 3008:30Continuing Unemployment Claims6/18NA2.142MModerateThJun 3009:45Chicago PMIJun50.849.3HIGHFJul 110:00ISM IndexJun51.451.3HIGH >> Federal Reserve Watch Forecasting Federal Reserve policy changes in coming months... After the Brexit vote, most economists think the Fed won't touch the current Funds Rate clear into next year. There is even a 7% probability the Fed will actually lower the rate in July, September or November, with that last month also registering a 2% probability the rate will go up. Note: In the lower chart, a 7% probability of change is a 93% certainty the rate will stay the same. Current Fed Funds Rate: 0.25%-0.5% After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Jul 270.25%-0.50%Sep 210.25%-0.50%Nov 20.25%-0.50%Probability of change from current policy: After FOMC meeting on: Consensus Jul 27 7% Sep 21 7% Nov 2 9%
THE CHIODO TEAM - Ralph Chiodo Broker / Owner 610-579-9514 Karen Chiodo Realtor / Owner 610-579-9514 Together Ralph and Karen (and their dedicated Team) have success....